If you’re Singaporean you’re no stranger to the terms ‘tolong let me strike 4D’ amongst family members, Aunties and Uncles. They make up part and parcel of our usual Singaporean talk. Some people buy Toto and 4D for the hopes of making a million dollars one day. Others do it just as a pastime.
Personally for me, I bought Toto only once in my life and that was my Secondary school friends in my late teens. Later, I got interested in the financial markets and I remembered picking up a couple of books containing advice, quips and wisdom from Charlie Munger.
If you don’t know Charlie Munger by now, he’s the billionaire side kick of everybody’s favourite Uncle: Warren Buffet.
One of Charlie’s famous one liner quips is: ‘I wouldn’t bet $100 against house odds between now and the grave.’
Since then, whenever my parents would talk about the casino, I’ll happy quote him and say: I’ll never bet against the casino from now till I die. I’ve also happily stuck to it.
Now, let’s take a look at fun statistical approach to Toto and 4D. Can you actually get rich through 4D or Toto?
Fun Statistics on How to Win 4D and Toto
- Your odds of getting murdered in Singapore is 1 in 480,000
- Your odds of becoming President of SIngapore is 1 in 567,000
- Every 4D number has the same chance of (1 in 10,000), and it is regardless of where the ticket is purchased
- Your chance of striking the first prize in TOTO jackpot is 1 in 14,000,000
- You are more likely to celebrate your 100th birthday (1 in 50) and more like to be struck by light night (1 in 240,000)
Source: Singapore Pools.
For Every $1 ‘Investing into 4D, How Much will You Earn Back?
Still not convinced yet? Let’s take a look and a practical example. What happens if you invested $1 into 4D?
Credits: Dollars and Sense
For every $1 you ‘invest’ in 4D, you will lose $0.42 on a small bet and $0.341 on a big bet. From a statistical standpoint, you’re going to lose money from anyway you bet.
Okay, let’s say you really enjoy the thrill of hoping that you may strike it rich someday. Or maybe you have a gambling itch that you desire to scratch. I have a more interesting mechanism for you.
That’s the: stock market.
It’s also a lot more ‘fast paced’. You get minute to minute changes on your stock price. Instead of waiting 3-4 times a week for Toto or 4D, you get to stare at your money every single second of the day if you choose to. Oh, it’s also far more profitable than 4D or Toto.
If you don’t believe me, let’s take a look at some statistics.
4D Odds Versus the SPDR Fund Tracking Straits Times Index Odds:
If you invested $100 every month in 4D in the last 5 years, here are your investment results:
Total amount invested: $6000
Total returns: $3480
Total Percentage Loss: -42%
I don’t think you bought 4D or Toto just to lose money. You buy in it hopes making a windfall someday. However, a negative 42% net loss is far from making a million.
Total amount invested: $6000
Total returns: $7180.2
Total Percentage Gain: 19.67%
NAV figure as of 5th September 2018.
In simple terms, investing is much more fun and you’re far more likely to get a positive return on your money.
Forget the long queues or going to temples to pray for your 4D numbers to get drawn. If you invest the right way and base it off math and statistics, you’re far more likely to make a million dollars in your lifetime.
Remember, yes, a Toto windfall will make you a multi millionaire overnight. However, that’s 1 in 14 million. That’s more than twice of Singapore’s population. Unless you got 14 million life times, I prefer betting on something I am far more likely to achieve in a longer period of time.
The Dr Wealth Way on How to Win at Toto and 4D:
Okay, if you’re still not convinced that investing is the way to grow your money, then I’ll happily wish you in my best hunger games interpretation: MAY THE ODDS BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOUR!
If you aren’t relying for lady luck to rescue you, then read on. This article might just be for you.
Let’s say you can take that 19.67% percentage gain… and possibly double it?
Here at Dr Wealth, our personal portfolio based off our factor based investment strategy has generated a return of 41% as of 1st August 2018. This factor based investment strategy has been developed by our CEO, Alvin Chow, for the last decade, who also manages the portfolio.
If you invested $100 every month in using Dr Wealth’s factor based investment strategy in the last 5 years, here are your investment results:
Total amount invested: $6000
Total returns: $8460
Total Percentage Gain: 41%
Here at Dr Wealth, our team test investment strategies our own portfolio with real cash and real trades:
If you’re a savvy gambler, who’s already looking at statistics and odds to maximizing your chances of beating the house, the stock market might just be for you.
I remembered when I boarded a casino cruise ship in my early twenties with a group of friends. I found out that the most advantageous card game for the player is blackjack. Whilst everybody was rushing off to the ‘DA XIAO’ table, I was busy Googling the odds of blackjack, how to count cards and how to beat the casino.
The truth is, in the majority of casinos, you’re never going to beat the house. The majority of modern casinos use an automated card shuffler that reshuffles all your cards after a couple of hands. Hence taking away all the edge you can get from card counting. With the automatic card shuffler, the player to house odds are 49% to 51% odds. That means, for every 100 games, assuming you bet with the same amount of money, you’re only going to only win 49 of them.
In the long run, you’re still going to lose.
However, in the stock market, it’s a different ball game. It’s a game based on statistics and odds. One that you can actually win and be profitable from.
Imagine the different psychological process you’ll go through if you choose to bet on the stock market instead. Instead of looking at numbers not coming up in your weekly 4D or Toto results and feeling disappointed, you get to look at your stock price increase over time.
If you’re look for a little bit of thrill, you get that as well. Your stock price is NEVER going to just increase month after month. It fluctuates up and down.
Through the years, I went from betting once or twice on 4D, Toto to counting cards in casino cruise ships to investing in the stock market. I’m happy to report that the stock market is the only vehicle that has made me money.
If you’re looking for a simple way to invest, I recommend investing in the Straits Times Index ETF. You can check out our STI guide. That’s already far far far better than placing your weekly bets on 4D or Toto. If you’re a little more adventurous, enjoy making decisions off statistics and are looking for higher returns, I recommend Dr Wealth’s factor based investment strategy.
Either way, never make bets against the house.