Malaysia unveiled their 2015 Budget last week and it has been well received as the country pledges to reduce their budgetary deficit yet again for 2015 and raised the GDP forecast for 2014.
They will be the second fastest growing GDP in Asia this year at 6.4%, after China (7.5%) and locked neck on with the Philippines. Globally, few countries can match that sort of growth anywhere except for Ireland (7.7%).
The budget is a popular one with a focus on social welfare, small enterprise, education, wage growth and more. Tax incentives are thrown in with tax cuts and building and infrastructure projects will be driving growth.
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A wonderful girlfriend of mine in KL summarised the headlines and I did not want to waste them, so I decided to share her mean cut & paste job with everyone.
MALAYSIA TO RAISE CASH HANDOUTS TO 750 RGT FROM 450 RGT (for family income between MYR 3,000-4,000)
MALAYSIA TO RAISE CASH HANDOUT TO 950 RGT FROM 650 RGT (for family income MYR 3,000 and below)
MALAYSIA’S ECONOMY TO GROW 5-6 PCT IN 2015
MALAYSIA ALLOCATES 17.7B RGT TO ARMED FORCES,9.1B RGT TO POLICE
MALAYSIA TO SPEED UP 3B RGT LANGAT 2 WATER PLANT CONSTRUCTION
MALAYSIA TO GIVE TAX EXEMPTIONS ON ISLAMIC INVEST A/C FOR 3 YRS
MALAYSIA TO SET UP ISLAMIC INVESTMENT ACCOUNT PLATFORM: NAJIB
MALAYSIA TO RAISE HOME BUY LIMIT TO 500,000 RGT TIL END 2015
MALAYSIA TO EXTEND STAMP DUTY EXEMPTION FOR FIRST HOME BUY
MALAYSIA TO EXTEND EXEMPTION FOR CPO EXPORT DUTY UNTIL DEC 2014
MALAYSIA ALLOCATES 41M RGT FOR PALM REPLANTING BY SMALLHOLDERS
MALAYSIA TO START YOUTH HOUSING SCHEME, NAJIB SAYS
MALAYSIA TO TRAIN 125 POTENTIAL WOMEN DIRECTORS FOR GLCS: NAJIB
MALAYSIA TO RELOCATE WATER VILLAGES IN SEMPORNA, SANDAKAN
MALAYSIA TO ALLOCATE 660M RGT FOR EASTERN SABAH SECURITY ZONE
MALAYSIA TO BUILD PAN-BORNEO HIGHWAY FOR 27B RGT: NAJIB
MALAYSIA TO UP EQUITY PARTICIPATION OF MALAYS,INDIGENOUS PEOPLE
MALAYSIA TO START INSURANCE SCHEME FOR RETRENCHED WORKERS
MALAYSIA ALLOCATES 56B RGT FOR 2013-2025 EDUCATION BLUEPRINT
MALAYSIA TO RAISE COMPONENT OF WAGES TO GDP FROM 34% CURRENTLY
MALAYSIA TO RAISE COMPONENT OF WAGES TO GDP TO 40% BY 2020
MALAYSIA ALLOCATES 56B RINGGIT FOR EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT: NAJIB
MALAYSIA TO ALLOCATE 150M RGT FOR SMES FOR ACCOUNTING SOFTWARE
MALAYSIA TO CUT INCOME TAXES FOR SMES TO 19% FROM 20%
MALAYSIA ALLOCATED 40.5B RINGGIT FOR SUBSIDIES IN 2014: NAJIB
MALAYSIA TO CUT COOPERATIVE INCOME TAXES BY 1 TO 2 PCT POINTS
MALAYSIA TO CUT CORPORATE INCOME TAXES TO 24% FROM 25%
MALAYSIA TAX PAYERS WITH FAMILY AND INCOME 4,000RGT/MO EXEMPTED
MALAYSIA TO CUT CORPORATE INCOME TAXES FOR 2016
MALAYSIA TO CUT 2015 PERSONAL INCOME TAXES BY 1-3 PCT POINTS
MALAYSIA GOVT TO REDUCE PERSONAL INCOME TAXES FOR 2015
MALAYSIA TO EXEMPT RON95 PETROL, DIESEL, LPG FROM GST
MALAYSIA PEGS GST EXEMPT THRESHOLD TO 1ST 200-300 POWER UNITS
MALAYSIA TO CHANGE THRESHOLD OF POWER USAGE EXEMPT FROM GST
MALAYSIA TO EXCLUDE FRUITS, BREAD, COFFEE, NOODLES FROM GST
MALAYSIA TARGETS 89B RGT INCOME FROM TOURIST ARRIVALS IN 2015
MALAYSIA TO WIDEN SCOPE OF PRODUCTS EXEMPT FROM GST, NAJIB SAYS
MALAYSIA TARGETS 29.4M TOURIST ARRIVALS IN 2015: NAJIB
MALAYSIA PLANS RM1.6B EASTERN KLANG VALLEY EXPRESSWAY
MALAYSIA TO SPEND 150M RGT TO UPGRADE EAST COAST RAILWAY LINE
MALAYSIA SAYS DASH HIGHWAY TO COST 4.2B RINGGIT
MALAYSIA PLANS WEST COAST EXPRESSWAY COSTING 5B RINGGIT
MALAYSIA TO SPEND 2.7B RGT NEXT 3 YRS FOR BROADBAND: NAJIB
MALAYSIA PLANS SG BESI-ULU KLANG EXPRESSWAY AT COST OF RM5.3B
MALAYSIA TO GIVE MANUFACTURERS CAPITAL ALLOWANCE TO AUTOMATE
MALAYSIA PLANS INCENTIVES FOR TECH-BASED INVESTMENT PROJECTS
MALAYSIA TO IMPLEMENT 2ND PHASE OF MRT FOR 23 BLN RGT: NAJIB
MALAYSIA SEEKS TO PROMOTE DOMESTIC SHIPPING INDUSTRY: NAJIB
MALAYSIA TO GIVE 3RD-PARTY LIABILITY PROTECTION TO CARGO SHIPS
MALAYSIA TO GRANT INCENTIVES FOR ECONOMIC CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT
MALAYSIA TO REINTRODUCE SERVICES EXPORT FUND OF 300M RGT: NAJIB
MALAYSIA TO STRENGTHEN ISLAMIC CAPITAL MARKET THROUGH MEASURES
MALAYSIA TO SPEND 4.9B RGT ON ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS FOR CITIZENS
MALAYSIA SAYS 2015 NET REVENUE FROM GST 690M RINGGIT
MALAYSIA TO REVITALIZE SERVICES SECTOR VIA LENDING SCHEME
MALAYSIA COMMITTED TO CUT BUDGET DEFICIT TO 3.5% OF GDP IN 2014
MALAYSIA SEES BUDGET DEFICIT NARROWING TO 3% OF GDP IN 2015
MALAYSIA SEES INFLATION QUICKENING TO 4%-5% IN 2015
MALAYSIA RAISES 2014 GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.5%-6%
MALAYSIA FORECASTS 5%-6% GDP GROWTH FOR 2015
MALAYSIA 2014 BOND SALE TARGET 84.5B RGT VS 100.5B RGT IN 2013
Budget Deficit 3.6% vs Current Account Surplus of 4.3% of GDP. We are getting somewhere.
Malaysia is going on first gear.
Singapore, on the other hand, is moving as a steady, mature economy would. The 3Q GDP was announced today at 1.2% QoQ (est 0.8%) and +2.4% YoY (est +2.7%).
The inflation outlook is also tempered with the MAS expecting 2015 prices to increase by just 0.5-1.5%.
There is lots to cheer for Malaysia if we examine this 2005 vs 2013 GDP table that I prepared (data unverified).
Their financial services sector is growing! With potential too as Malaysia leads the global pack in Islamic finance, accounting for 60% of the global Sukuk bond market in 2014.
That is a feat that would be hard to match for any other country.
Malaysia is in as the top destination for Islamic funds even as Muslim brotherhood exiles migrate there and they have China as a firm friend.
Forget about Iskandar, that stuff is for amateurs as Chinese developers prepare to sell about 20-30,000 new units over the next few years to Singaporean buyers.
The place to be is Pahang or Kuantan to be exact (where the part Chinese owned port is situated) and apparently where a new LNG facility would be built.
Singapore and Malaysia, both banking on their banking sector to work overtime to boost their economies sounds like Malaysia has learnt a thing or two from Singapore on economy building. (Note that Financial Services slowed for 2Q14 in Malaysia)
Let’s take a look at Singapore’s GDP components and the growth pattern.
Fastest growing has been construction which includes that period of heavy building for the casinos and the new sports hub. Going ahead, construction is likely to slow even with the MRT projects.
It is left to Banking to shore up the economy which is also a good reason to keep the SGD as strong as possible to project the Switzerland of the East banking standards.
The difference between the 2 countries is the different gears they are on and different inflation expectations – Singapore revised 2015 inflation lower 0.5-1.5% while Malaysia revised 2015 inflation higher to 4-5%.
With Singapore on cruise control mode as the country heads into a widely expected early elections in 2015, economic growth will likely remain sidelined.
I remain bearish SGDMYR although it would be a tough nut to crack and the lack of foreign exchange avenues for folks to buy. But the KLCI down -3.78% for the year vs Singapore +1%, Thailand +19.09% and Jakarta at +15.17%, would be too bad to miss.
My call was for SGDMYR to 2.53 then 2.40 and I still think its a matter of time
This article was published on www.tradehaven.net, and is republished with permission.